Global Change and Extreme Hydrology: Testing Conventional Wisdom

The Water Science and Technology Board, part of the National Academies’ Division on Earth and Life Studies (DELS), has released a report based on the proceedings of a workshop that examines whether floods and droughts are becoming more prominent in the United States, how they are changing at the regional scale, and what is known about global climate’s influence on these changes.

This report presents an overview of the current state of the science in terms of climate change and extreme hydrologic events. It examines the "conventional wisdom" that climate change will "accelerate" the hydrologic cycle, fuel more evaporation, and generate more precipitation, based on an increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold more water vapor.

The report also includes descriptions of the changes in frequency and severity of extremes, the ability (or inability) to model these changes, and the problem of communicating the best science to water resources practitioners in useful forums.

TRB, like DELS, is a division of the National Academies, which include the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council.