Realistic Timing Estimates for Automated Vehicle Implementation
Most of the literature that discusses the future effects of automated vehicles assumes they
will become the dominant form of transportation and then explores how AVs
may affect transportation systems and society more broadly. However, relatively little research
has provided details meant to support assumptions that significant AV deployment is inevitable.
The quality of forecasting and the types of assumptions made vary widely.
NCHRP Research Report 1049: Realistic Timing Estimates for Automated Vehicle Implementation,
from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program,
identifies several opportunities in the current approach to forecasting the future
of the AV marketplace. It aims to deliver a framework of considerations for decision-making
focused on vehicle automation and a set of assumptions and tools that agencies can use
regardless of their size, geographic location, miles of roadway, number of transit vehicles, or funding sources.
Supplemental to the report is a
PowerPoint presentation describing the research effort and its deliverables.
This Summary Last Modified On: 8/14/2023